Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

Early Warning Systems: A Review

Numerous scientific research and engineering programs are being carried out globally in an effort to monitor environmental degradation, natural and anthropogenic disasters. These are part of a process to predict possible catastrophic events and help minimize their devastating impact on the environment and human life. Many of these programs, sometimes referred to as Early Warning Systems (EWSs),...

An early warning on early warning systems!

Non-Linear Relationships Among Oil Price, Gold Price and Stock Market Returns in Iran: A Multivariate Regime-Switching Approach

In this paper, the effects of oil and gold prices on stock market index are investigated. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model to examine the nonlinear properties of these three variables during the period of January 2003 - December 2014. The Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes representing "deep recession", "mild recession" and ...

Early warning signals of stochastic switching.

The development of statistical signals for anticipating changes of state ('regime shifts') is an active area of research in ecology [1,2], earth and atmospheric science [3], and biology [4,5]. Causes of regime shifts include noise-induced transitions [6], discontinuities in the underlying dynamics [7], stochastic fluctuations dominated by low frequencies [8], stochastic switching between basins...

WG Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems aim at detecting unclassified but potentially harmful system behavior based on preliminary indications and are complementary to Intrusion Detection Systems. Both kinds of systems try to detect, identify and react before possible damage occurs and contribute to an integrated and aggregated situation report (big picture). A particular emphasis of Early Warning Systems is to ...